Point of View: Cyprus is a eurozone and a foreign policy error

Written by Peter Wilding on Wednesday, 20 March 2013. Posted in Peter Wilding archive, Eurozone, Global Security, Economic Affairs, Defence, News, Foreign

Point of View: Cyprus is a eurozone and a foreign policy error

Twin pincers are attacking the flanks of Europe’s political power: the eurozone crisis and a ‘big three’ diplomatic crisis. Whilst the economic crisis has distracted the EU since 2008, the foreign policy crisis has diminished it.

The first pincer, as we have been reporting this week, is the proposed troika solution, which has reignited the eurozone crisis. The European Central Bank pulled the plug on Cyprus by threatening not to accept Cypriot government debt as collateral against liquidity support unless a haircut was accepted. Yesterday’s vote in Nicosia was a rejection not only of this rescue package but of bailout foreign policy.

For Nigel Farage, the scene is a PR dream. Plucky little Cyprus defies the world of Brussels diktats and big power intransigence. Result: The diplomatic crisis that rises from this is reputational damage to the euro, the Commission, the eurogroup and Germany. And a door left ajar for a further increase in Russian influence on an island within the EU and adjacent to Syria. With the Cypriot finance minister in Moscow, Russia might ride to Nicosia’s rescue by lending him the €6bn shortfall.

The second pincer, however, is the wider problem of which Cyprus is merely a symptom. This is the decade-long deadlock in the big three’s view of how to conduct and coordinate European policy in order to leverage continental power. The UK and Germany cohere over economic policy, the UK and France over defence policy and Germany and France over less and less.

Good for UK in Europe?
1=Very Bad. 5=Neutral. 9=Very Good

4.4/9 rating (5 votes)

Point of View: Cyprus Banks Rescue Package

Written by Dr Michael Lloyd on Monday, 18 March 2013. Posted in Bulletin Weekly Summary, Eurozone, Global Poverty, Bulletin, Budget, Global Competition, Economic Affairs, News, Competition, Point of View, Trade, Energy

Cyprus banks hold between 5 and 8 times the GDP of the country.

Despite the critical headlines and comments on the Cyprus rescue package, it is as well to recognise that it is a rescue package. Without a deal on the 'bail-out:bail-in' package the alternative would have been a total collapse of the Cypriot banking sector; an abrupt disappearance of Cyprus from the Eurozone, and a probable default on Cypriot sovereign debt. Had that happened the headlines would have been far worse and the pain for ordinary Cypriots far worse. So far none of the critics of the rescue package have suggested an alternative solution, only, perhaps not unreasonably (see below), that those with bank deposits less than 100,000 euro should be exempted from the tax/levy.

It is also worth pointing out that the decision on the raising of the 5.8 billion euro lies with the Cypriot government which is still debating whether to accept the initial proposals to include in the 'bail-in' a 6.75% levy on those with less than 100,000 euro. One of the proposals being considered is to reduce this levy to 3%. It should also be noted that the payment of the levy will be in exchange for shares in the banks for an equivalent amount. The alternative to Cypriot bank depositors paying a, small, tax would be for taxpayers more generally to have funded the 5.8 billion euro required.

Good for UK in Europe?
1=Very Bad. 5=Neutral. 9=Very Good

5.7/9 rating (6 votes)

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